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What stocks would benefit from a Romney Presidenti

 
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PostPosted: 09    Post subject: What stocks would benefit from a Romney Presidenti

What stocks would benefit from a Romney Presidential win in 2012
TLDR: Long Defense, Oil, Luxury Goods. Short Publishing and Infrastructure.
Romney made few concrete campaign promises, but a reduction in capital gains taxes and corporate taxes would likely be bullish for the market in general, at least in the short term. those with higher Betas. This is similarly true for his promises regarding corporate tax rates. A leveraged markettracking ETF such as SSO (2x S would do about as well as you can safely predict in such a scenario. However, this strategy assumes that the only factor pressing upon the market is tax rates. (That is to say, this is the answer Romney would give.)
More specifically, given that he sees income inequality as no problem at all, the best play on continued income polarization would continue to be luxury goods, such as Coach (COH), Louis Vuitton Moet Hennesy (LVMH), or Tiffany (TIF). However, luxury good stocks have appreciated significantly over the past couple of years as this trend has become more obvious, and also in expectation of continued growing demand from the kleptocratic Chinese plutocracy. Romney has hinted that he might do something regarding China, but it not clear what, or what effect his actions would have on the consumptive patterns of the Chinese elite, making this a somewhat dangerous play. Not to mention this position is extremely exposed to the Chinese market in general, for which there are many very bearish opinions going forward.
The most obvious play, in my opinion, are the Republican stalwarts of defense and oilfield services. Romney has indicated that he is very much a willing servant of both industries, and would likely obstruct any efforts to rein in defense spending or reduce tax expenditures to oil companies on the excuse that it would hurt job creation. In other words, those who have been winning will continue to do so. There are two sectorwide ETF ITA and PPA, but both are fairly illiquid.
Popular Oilfield service companies include Halliburton (HAL) and Schlumberger (SLB.)
Having said that, if you are of the opinion that a Romney presidency would be overall destructive for wealth creation and therefore have a bearish outlook on the stock market, your best bet may be to seek attractive shorting opportunities those that would take the biggest hit from a Romney presidency. The best way to gauge an industry vulnerability to a Romney presidency would be to look at the disparity in lobbying money spent on Democrats rather than Republicans by various industries, and to discount those industries that underspend on Republicans because they already own them. for a list of stocks in this industry. Publishing is also a dying industry (courtesy of websites such as this one) propped up largely by aging billionaires clinging to a world which no longer exists, making it an attractive short. Unfortunately there does not appear to be a sectorwide ETF, meaning you will have to absorb some companyspecific risks if you want to play this angle.
Finally, given Romney desire to slash federal spending and taxes,[url=http://www.fcgeo.ca]ugg outlet[/url], infrastructure spending is likely not going to expand dramatically. I tend to use AECOM (NYSE:ACM) as a proxy for expectations about governmentbased infrastructure spending, though you note that it is already trading at a relatively cheap P/E ratio on the belief that no matter who is president, government infrastructure spending is likely to be muted going forward (despite significant popular support for such spending.)
Other industries would likely be handled similarly regardless of who is President; the effect of repealing universal healthcare on healthcare stocks is unclear to me. Similarly, the effects of a Romney presidency upon the languishing finance industry are unclear it would probably benefit vehicles such as hedge funds and private equity more than publiclytraded banks, meaning the benefits would be denied to all but "qualified investors". The shortterm risks of banks and their balance sheets outweigh whatever value they may derive from a Romney presidency.
An unlikely opportunity may present itself in municipal bonds. Though the forecast for munis is weak, the fact that they are overwhelmingly owned by wealthy investors looking to take advantage of Municipal debt taxexempt status means that they are owned by those with more sway in a Romney White House. municipal debt as its value troughs may prove prescient I doubt Romney will allow too many municipal defaults, and will likely bail out struggling municipalities, particularly those whose debt is primarily owned by wealthy individuals rather than pension funds. This is obviously a risky play, particularly if you engage it via the illiquid CDS market.
though they come without the security of cash flows that buying actual bonds offers. I recommend investing in bonds where Romney is less likely to stand back and demagogue Democrats for their inability to effectively manage their city finances (a particular risk in California, for instance.)
Disclaimer: Always look into a company before buying its stock, including reading its financial reports for a clear understanding of the firm risk factors. I am not a soothsayer, have no inside knowledge, and everything I have written here could be proven 100% wrong. So far as I know neither I nor my family have any positions in any of the abovementioned stocks, though I do live in California.


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■ reporter Huang Ye from Shanghai a few days ago, the reporter from the eleventh session of the "twenty-first Century China Entrepreneurs Forum" was informed, the western route of the new merchandise of quality certification by the China brand high-quality goods (Gang Tie) Certification Committee officially named brand authentication, which will make trade Xiben Shinkansen platform on the quality of construction steel.
Mr
"the implementation of the project will greatly curb the existing iron and steel circulation of some non transparent operation,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], in order to improve the logistics of iron and steel industry standards,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], promote domestic iron and steel logistics industry play a role in efficient cooperative operation." Experts believe that, "to some extent,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], this is also beneficial to avoid construction companies chasing inferior steel idea, guarantee the quality of building engineering."
, China Federation of logistics and purchasing logistics of iron and Steel Association Secretary General Wang Jianzhong said,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], in order to regulate the order of the industry,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the committee is to organize and implement the iron and steel logistics standard system Chinese construction projects. Wang Jianzhong said, "and attach great importance to society in the relevant state agencies to promote,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the current project has been officially launched. Recently has been approved by the Ministry of finance notice."
the quality of construction steel has been the industry issues of common concern. A steel trading business in Jiangsu in an "International Finance News" reporter the interview said,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], "some local steel trading center for their own interests, often will sell some of the poor quality of construction steel. This situation not universal,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but really exist." It is reported that,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], recently, a public bid,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], in Hainan Haikou steel market is still "downsizing" reinforced in the public or private sale sell, bring hidden trouble to the construction quality and safety.
in fact, request the Ministry in September this year released the latest version of "iron and steel industry standard conditions of production and operation",[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the quality of the products of iron and steel enterprises shall comply with the relevant national standards and industry, prohibited the production of rebar,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], rebar II (2013), the elimination of backward production process equipment and product catalogue for the guidance of hot rolled silicon steel sheet, etc. "some industry (2010)" to eliminate steel products.
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yesterday at five thirty in the afternoon, the reporters came to the two golden mountain tunnel on the west side of the road. From the tunnel about 200 meters, four lanes through the fence and into a lane, funnel-shaped tunnel become blocked. With the arrival of the rush hour traffic, from west to east direction, from the "funnel" into the viaduct in Doumen.


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